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Vanessa Gray
of people who experienced a disaster but received no warning own a mobile phone.
In 2023, 30% of people worldwide reported that they had personally experienced a disaster related to a natural hazard in the past five years, a figure up from 27% in 2021, according to the latest World Risk Poll. The findings of the poll shed light on the complex relationship between experiencing natural hazards and resilience, and highlight opportunities for increasing resilience through digital technologies and better early warning systems.
The first 2024 World Risk Poll report reveals that among people who experienced a disaster in the past five years, the most common way of receiving a warning was through radio, TV, or newspapers (53%) – a slight decline from 56% in 2021. Just under half received warnings from the local government or police (47%) or from the internet/social media (46%), up from 36% in 2021. While the report did not ask specifically about the use of mobile phones to receive alerts (something that is likely to be included in the next World Risk Poll), these findings highlight the opportunities brought by digital technologies as more and more people are connected and online.
When disaster strikes, alerts and early warning systems can save lives by giving people just a little bit of extra time to act or evacuate. Amid the onset of climate change and a rising incidence of extreme weather events and natural hazards, early warning systems (EWS) are a proven and effective climate adaptation measure, estimated to provide a tenfold return on investment. They are also at the heart of the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative that the UN Secretary General launched in March 2022, with the goal of ensuring that by 2027, every person on Earth is protected by an EWS.
As the lead on ‘Warning Dissemination and Communication’ within EW4All, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN agency for digital technologies, is working hard to connect the world and ensure that everyone benefits from the opportunities of digital technologies and growth. In an increasingly risky world, digital growth presents new opportunities to reach billions of people faster and more effectively before, during, or after disasters.
According to ITU's Facts and Figures 2023, 95%of the world's population has access to mobile broadband networks. Close to four in five people (78%) own a mobile phone. Even in the world’s Least Developed Countries, mobile phone ownership is at about 60%. This makes mobile networks an incredibly powerful communication channel to alert populations about imminent hazards. It also highlights the need to ensure that governments take advantage of mobile early warning systems to reach communities at risk. As found by the World Risk Poll report, more than three quarters (77%) of people who experienced a disaster but received no warning own a mobile phone.
One of the most impactful technologies for warning people via mobile phones is cell-broadcast. It enables authorities to send targeted alerts to specific at-risk areas without requiring users to download an app. These alerts, triggered by the official authority, appear on all mobile phones in the area with a loud warning sound. Compatible with most devices, cell-broadcast requires no subscription and operates even in silent mode. It reaches visitors and tourists, supports multi-language alerts, and can send millions of messages within seconds, all while avoiding network congestion. Additionally, setting up a cell-broadcast system incurs relatively low costs.
While it seems like a great way of making people safer, only a limited number of countries have, to date, deployed cell-broadcast, and only 45 countries have implemented mobile-based EWS, highlighting a significant global gap in leveraging digital technologies to reach people effectively. One of the main barriers is that it requires governments to work closely with mobile network operators and agree on a clear governance system, and standardized alerting procedures.
The World Risk Poll rightly highlights the opportunities of digital, and the importance of investing in and rebuilding the infrastructure that it relies on. At the same time, it points to the persistent inequalities in access to EWS. Among the least financially resilient (those who could cover basic needs for a week or less if they lost their income), 37% of those who experienced a disaster received no warning, compared with 26% of those who could cover their needs for a month or more. This means that we need more investment in infrastructure and resilient networks. It also means that all communication channels must be used to reach those at risk. ITU promotes a multi-channel approach, which combines all existing channels (TV, sirens, broadcasts, social media, etc.) recognizes the diversity of communities at risk, and helps address inequalities and protect vulnerable populations.
The Resilience in a Changing World report provides important guidance for policymakers and development organizations to deliver targeted interventions, build better climate adaptation strategies and early warning systems. By learning from each other, working together and embracing digital innovations, we can pave the way for a safer and more resilient future for all.
Dr. Sarah Jenkins and Dr. Andrea Taylor discuss the integration of the Poll with data on vulnerabilities, governance, and long-term climate projections to identify predictors of disaster risk perception and preparedness, and develop early warning and risk communication strategies.
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