Understanding the drivers of weather risk perception and preparedness around the world

Around the world, severe weather events and their impacts pose a threat to life, wellbeing, property and economic development. The World Meteorological Organisation estimates that over the past 50 years, weather- and climate-related disasters have directly led to over two million deaths and over $3 trillion in monetary losses.

With the frequency and severity of high impact weather projected to increase in many areas of the world due to climate change, identifying effective strategies to reduce the risk of harm these events pose – to individuals, communities and socio-economic activities – is critical.

Early warning systems that allow individuals and organisations to take action to protect themselves can be an effective risk reduction tool, and have been estimated to provide a tenfold return on investment. However, for warnings to be effective, they must be received, understood and appropriately acted upon.

With this in mind, we have been undertaking a three-year project to improve warning communication strategies in a range of countries across the world. By integrating data from the World Risk Poll with country level information on disasters, climate vulnerability, weather and governance we have gained a better understanding of the factors that predict weather risk perception and preparedness. Some of these factors have a similar relationship with risk perception and preparedness across most countries, but for other factors, the relationship varies significantly between countries.

This analysis has also allowed us to identify groupings of countries (‘clusters’) that share common characteristics related to weather risk perception and preparedness. We are using these findings to inform the development and testing of weather warning communication strategies in a series of focal countries.

Predicting risk perception and preparedness

Across the world, we found that women and those with higher levels of education tended to be more concerned about severe weather and feel that national government was less prepared to deal with a disaster. Those with higher incomes, meanwhile, tended to report greater household disaster risk preparedness. 

While personal experience of severe weather was consistently related to higher concern about weather and climate risk, its relationship with risk preparedness varied across countries. In some countries, those experiencing severe weather report feeling that national government is less prepared. In others, this relationship was reversed or not present at all. This may reflect perceptions of how well the national government has managed past events.

At a country level, lower GDP was related to greater concern about severe weather, while higher scores on governance indicators were related to greater perceived risk preparedness. Interestingly, projected future flood risk was associated with both higher concern about weather and greater perceived preparedness for disasters, potentially reflecting prior national level experience of flooding. 

Identifying countries with common weather risk characteristics

Through our analysis we have also identified six groups (‘clusters’) of countries, based on differences on three key dimensions: Perceived Preparedness to deal with disaster risks, Affluence, and Weather Concern (see fig. 1 below). 

We found that those in Clusters 1, 2 and 3 (primarily based in Africa and Latin America) who reported experiencing a disaster were substantially less likely to have received a warning than those in Clusters 4, 5 and 6. While Clusters 4 and 5 tended to contain higher income countries, Cluster 6 contained several lower-middle and middle income countries which have developed impact-based forecast and warning services.1

Sources of warnings also varied; in Clusters 1, 3 and 6, traditional news media was the most frequently cited source of warnings, while traditional news media and internet sources were mentioned about equally in other clusters. 

In terms of weather warning communication, this indicates:

• A pressing need to increase the reach of early warning communications in Clusters 1, 2 and 3 through accessible channels. For Cluster 1 in particular, the continuing importance of traditional news media should be emphasised.
• Where Perceived Preparedness and Affluence are lower, longer-term capacity building should be accompanied with near-term efforts to identify and communicate actions that can be feasibly undertaken by households to reduce their risk of harm. 
• Where Perceived Preparedness and Concern are both low, the identification of feasible risk reduction actions may need to be accompanied by educational efforts to make people aware of the need for these.
• Where Perceived Preparedness is high and Concern low, it is important to assess whether feeling prepared aligns with being prepared. 

Ongoing work

Having identified six robust clusters of countries with respect to weather risk, we are working to develop and test communication strategies for a set of countries representing different clusters, and to further explore the communication approaches that might work best in different contexts.

To find out more, and to read the briefing note based on this research, visit the project webpage.

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  An impact-based warning service is one where warnings are issued based on the potential consequences of severe weather, rather just the exceedance of meteorological thresholds.