Exploring household preparedness in the complex multi-hazard context of Nakuru, Kenya

Our project aims to strengthen resilience to multiple, interrelated hazards by supporting the development and uptake of multi-hazard preparedness plans for households in low-income contexts.

We identified eastern Africa as an interesting case study area for three reasons: its relatively low levels of reported  2021 data, its multi-hazard context(s), and the prevalence of low-income areas in the region. We conducted an in-depth analysis of the Poll data on preparedness in eastern Africa, in which levels of preparedness are measured by questions relating to households having a plan and self-assessing as being prepared for disasters.

In-line with existing literature on preparedness, our analysis suggests that a combination of factors spanning income, gender, experience of hazards, and many other variables affect preparedness levels in different places at different times. After combining this analysis with reflections on where we had contacts and networks, Kenya emerged as the best candidate for our study. Nakuru was proposed as a suitable focus by our colleagues in Kenya for several reasons: 

• There is a complex multi-hazard context, with the city affected by a range of hazards including droughts, floods, ground collapse, seismic activity, and the rising water levels of Lake Nakuru.
• It is one of the fastest-growing cities in eastern Africa, posing opportunities and challenges for disaster risk management.
• Our partners already have a network of engaged stakeholders, across government and civil society, in Nakuru. 

A trip to Nakuru in December 2024 confirmed this suitability and set planning in motion for the April/May 2025 visit where we developed and tested a methodology that would generate data to inform multi-hazard household preparedness plans. The methodology, in turn, was informed by analysis of the literature on multi-hazards and household preparedness. This analysis of the peer-reviewed literature (in preparation for publication soon), suggests that: 

• More qualitative research is needed to explore why people do or do not prepare for disasters.
• More research is needed on relevant preparedness actions for the global majority, especially those in low-income contexts.
• Further research is needed to understand interactions between preparedness actions and multi-hazard scenarios.

Given this context, we designed a methodology that would allow us to understand the complex multi-hazard interrelationships affecting people in Nakuru, how people are already preparing for these scenarios, and what more could be done to support preparedness at the household level. Working with local partners, we chose two low-income neighbourhoods in the city, Barut and Kaptembwa, which face multiple hazards, as our case studies. 

Barut is a relatively new neighbourhood in Nakuru and is significantly affected by the rising water level of Lake Nakuru, as well as riverine flooding, droughts, and other hazards that affect most of the region. It is also understood to be a relatively low-income neighbourhood, somewhat isolated from the rest of the city. Kaptembwa is a neighbourhood on the edge of Nakuru that contains relatively high levels of informal housing as compared to the rest of the city. While affected by a range of hazards, Kaptembwa is particularly prone to flooding, and has recently witnessed ground-collapse events related to 
groundwater flows and the complex geology of the Rift Valley.

We conducted two participatory workshops in both neighbourhoods with the same groups of 15 residents. Participants were recruited in collaboration with community leaders. They had mostly been affected by one or more hazards and were recruited by demographic criteria (gender, age) to ensure the sample was representative of the neighbourhood. 

The first workshop involved a storyboard methodology in which participants narrated their experience(s) of multi-hazard scenarios, how they were or were not prepared for them, the impacts the hazards had on them, and whether they affected their ability to deal with other hazards. Hazards mentioned were then noted and mapped in a ranking and voting exercise. In the second workshop, participants were presented with different combinations of these hazards in a ‘card game’ format and then asked how they could prepare for combinations of these hazards. Responses were recorded and are being transcribed and translated (from Swahili) by one of our local research partners, Gaplink International. 

We also completed a participatory workshop with professionals from the private sector, NGOs, and national and local government working on preparedness related issues in Nakuru to explore the preparedness policy and practice landscape.

The data generated from Barut and Kaptembwa during these three weeks will inform the development of multi-hazard household preparedness plans. The overall methodology applied in this context will also be written into a toolkit guide, enabling it to be applied elsewhere. We are currently processing the data and will return to Kenya in September and October 2025 to co-create these outputs and implement findings. Additional components of the ongoing project work include a review of potential multi-hazard interactions specific to Nakuru, and a review of how specific preparedness actions may have synergies or asynergies across hazards. Ultimately, we hope that the toolkit and other project outputs will help households to be more prepared for multi-hazard disasters and support wider efforts towards disaster risk reduction.